Past US intelligence estimates have consistently concluded that Iran has not made a decision to build a nuclear weapon.

· While Iran insists that its nuclear program is peaceful, a classified 2013 U.S. intelligence estimate stated that Iran “is developing nuclear capabilities to […] give it the ability to develop nuclear weapons, should the decision be made to do so.” The intelligence community does “not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

On November 24, 2013, the P5+1 and Iran agreed to the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) a historic, six-month first-step deal that verifiably freezes Iran’s nuclear program and begins to roll back its most proliferation-sensitive aspects. The purpose of the deal is to build time and trust to negotiate a more comprehensive final agreement that ensures Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Key provisions of the agreement include:

· Halting all enrichment above 5%, diluting or converting the existing stockpile of 20% uranium to a form that cannot be further enriched, and restricting any further increase in the stockpile of 3.5% uranium.

· Prohibiting the installation and activation of new centrifuges, devices that enrich uranium to a higher grade.

· Suspending construction at Iran’s heavy water reactor near Arak.

· “Unprecedented transparency measures” in the form of daily IAEA inspections at Iran’s Natanz and Fordow facilities, along with regular access to centrifuge assembly, component and storage facilities.

· In return for these concessions, Iran will receive limited, reversible sanctions relief in the amount of approximately $7 billion. The relief will primarily amount to a release of sanctions on oil assets, gold and precious metals and Iran’s auto sector, while leaving the much stronger sanctions on Iran’s oil and banking sectors in place.

Implementation of the JPOA and progress toward a comprehensive final agreement has demonstrated Iranian compliance with the interim deal and cooperation with the IAEA. According to the latest IAEA report, Iran’s current status on fulfillment of the agreement is as follows:

· Iran has implemented the seven practical measures outlined by the Framework for Cooperation with the IAEA, and has agreed to the implementation of 5 additional practical measures.

· Iran has not enriched uranium above 5% at any of its declared facilities since the JPOA took effect.

· Iran's stock of 20% enriched uranium has decreased from 209.1 kg to 38.4 kg and Iran has ceased all further production of 20% enriched uranium.

· “No additional centrifuges have been installed in Iran’s fuel enrichment plants.

· No additional components have been installed at Iran’s heavy water reactor near Arak, and there has been no manufacture or testing of fuel for the reactor.

8.Editorial: Hope trumps experience in Iran deal

There's risk in a deal that eases pressure on Iran

November 25, 2013

The Obama administration has cut an interim nuclear deal with Iran that gravely worries some of America's strongest allies in the Middle East and even gives pause to some of President Barack Obama's allies in the U.S. Senate.

It's easy to see what Iran gets out of this: a reprieve from crippling economic sanctions worth some $6 billion to $7 billion in cash.

It's more difficult to figure that Iran views this as the first step toward giving up its nuclear ambitions. Iran will stall some of its development efforts, but it will not significantly step back from the timetable it faces to build a nuclear weapon.

Iran curbs, but doesn't stop, enriching uranium in the interim deal. It continues to enrich at lower levels, though it commits to dilute or neutralize its higher enriched uranium that is closer to weapons grade. At best, this could add a few weeks to the time Iran needs to produce weapons-grade uranium for a bomb.

Tehran faces other modest curbs. It can't install new centrifuges but it can keep those it has and replace broken units. Iran will allow inspectors to visit its declared nuclear sites daily to ensure that it is not cheating. That's of limited value if Iran has secret nuclear facilities.

One concession of value: Iran cannot take critical steps to bring online its nuclear power plant at Arak. If that reactor goes online, its spent fuel eventually could be reprocessed into plutonium. That's a second path to the bomb for Iran. Once the reactor starts, any military action against it would be nearly unthinkable because an explosion would risk nuclear fallout.

The reason for deep concern, though, is that Iran escapes from some of the economic sanctions that forced it to negotiate in the first place. The Obama administration says those sanctions can be reinstated if Iran cheats or negotiations fail. But Iran will reap the benefit of billions of dollars. And it may not be that easy to persuade international businesses to forgo trade with Tehran if trade resumes.

Republicans, as would be expected, sharply criticized the terms of the deal. But Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, was unsparing as well. "In my view, this agreement did not proportionally reduce Iran's nuclear program for the relief it is receiving," he said.

He might as well have said hope has triumphed over experience.

The deal provides six months for negotiations toward a final agreement. It also buys Iran time to gain a firmer financial footing. The greatest risk here is that Iran – which has a history of duplicity in its dealings with the world on nuclear matters – will lead along negotiators for months and then resume its efforts to build a nuclear weapon.

The deal should not halt bipartisan efforts in the U.S. Senate to approve legislation for tougher economic sanctions on Iran. in the hours after the deal was announced, there were indications that Democrats might still join Republicans in that effort, but Democrats wouldn't agree to new sanctions that would take effect during the six-month negotiating window. The best that may be on the table is legislation that would quickly impose harsher sanctions if Iran violates the agreement or walks away from negotiations.

The U.S. and other nations who negotiated this deal appear to have put only a speed bump in front of Iran, a speed bump in a very dangerous race.