The oil price shocks

Oil is an important commodity in modem economies. Oil and its derivatives provide fuel for heating, transport, and machinery, and arc basic inputs for the manufacture of industrial petrochemicals and many household products ranging from plastic utensils to polyester clothing. From the beginning of this century until 1973 the use of oil Increased steadily. Over much of this period the price of oil fell in comparison -with the prices of other products. Economic activity was organized on the assumption of cheap and abundant oil.

In 1973 – 74 there was an abrupt change. The main oil-producing nations, mostly located in the Middle East but including also Venezuela and Nigeria, belong to OPEC — the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Recognizing that together they produced most of the world's oil, OPEC decided in 1973 to raise the price at which this oil was sold. Although higher prices encourage consumers of oil to try to economize on its use, OPEC countries correctly forecast that cutbacks in the quantity demanded would be small since most other nations were very dependent on oil and had few commodities available as potential substitutes for oil. Thus OPEC countries correctly anticipated that a substantial price increase would lead to only a small reduction in sales. It would be very profitable for OPEC members.

Oil prices are traditionally quoted in US dollars per barrel. Fig. 1 shows the price of oil from 1970 to 1986. Between 1973 and 1974 the price of oil tripled, from $2,90 to $9 per barrel. After a more gradual rise between 1974 and 1978 there was another sharp increase between 1978 and 1980, from $12 to $30 per barrel. The dramatic price increases of 1973 – 79 and 1980 – 82 have become known as the OPEC oil price shocks, not only because they took the rest of the world by surprise but also because of the upheaval they inflicted on the world economy, which had previously been organized on the assumption of cheap oil prices.

People usually respond to prices in this or that way. When the price of some commodity increases, consumers will try to use less of it but producers will want to sell more of it. These responses, guided by prices, are part of the process by which most Western societies determine what, how and for whom to produce.Consider firsthow the economy produces goods and services. When, as in the 1970s, the price of oil increases six-fold, every firm will try to reduce its use of oil-based products. Chemical firms will develop artificial substitutes for petroleum inputs to their production processes; airlines will look for more fuel-efficient aircraft; electricity will be produced from more coal-fired generators. In general, higher oil prices make the economy produce in a way that uses less oil.

Oil price ($ per barrel)

Figure 1. The price of oil. 1970 – 86

How does the oil price increase affectwhat is being produced? Finns and households reduce their use of oil-intensive products, which are now more expensive. Households switch to gas-fired central heating and buy smaller cars. Commuters form car-pools or move closer to the city. High prices not only choke off the demand for oil-related commodities; they also encourage consumers to purchase substitute commodities. Higher demand for these commodities bids up their price and encourages their production. Designers produce smaller cars, architects contemplate solar energy, and research laboratories develop alternatives to petroleum in chemical production. Throughout the economy, what is being produced reflects a shift away from expensive oil-using products towards less oil-intensive substitutes. Thefor whom question in this example has a clear answer. OPEC revenues from oil sales increased from $35 billion in 1973 to nearly $300 billion in 1980. Much of this increased revenue was spent on goods produced in the industrialized Western nations. In contrast, oil-importing nations had to give up more of their own production in exchange for the oil imports that they required. In terms of goods as a whole, the rise in oil prices raised the buying power of OPEC and reduced the buying power of oil-importing countries such as Germany and Japan. The world economy was producing more for OPEC and less for Germany and Japan. Although it is the most important single answer to the 'for whom' question, the economy is an intricate, interconnected system and a disturbance anywhere ripples throughout the entire economy,

In answering the 'what' and 'how' questions, we have seen that some activities expanded and others contracted following the oil price shocks. Expanding industries may have to pay higher wages to attract the extra labour that they require. For example, in the British economy coal miners were able to use the renewed demand for coal to secure large wage Increases. The opposite effects may have been expected if the 1986 oil price slump had persisted.

The OPEC oil price shocks example illustrates how society allocates scarce resources between competing uses.

A scarce resource is one for which the demand at a zero price would exceed the available supply. We can think of oil as having become more scarce in economic terms when its price rose.

INCOME

The second of the three economic issues is the question of income, that is, income distribution, the way in which income – that's what people earn – is distributed or shared around.

You, and your family, have an income. You have an annual income, that is what you earn in a year. This income allows you to enjoy various goods and services. It means you have a certain standard of living. Your standard of living, of course, includes what you think of as necessary to your life, things like food, water, somewhere to live, health and education. But your income doesn't just cover the necessities of life. It also includes recreation, whether that's sport or TV or a holiday. Your income will be less than some of your neighbours', but it will be more than some of your other neighbours'. Your neighbours mean not just people living in your own country, but also people living in other countries.

Just as you and your family have an income, so nations, different countries, also have an income — the national income, it's often called. A national income is not the money the government gets. The national income is the sum total of the incomes of all the people living in that country, in other words, everyone's income added together. In the same way one can think of world income as the total of all the incomes earned by all the people in the world.

Concerning the distribution of national and world income, some questions are to be asked: who, in the world, gets what share of these incomes? The distribution of income, either in the world or in a country, tells us how income is divided between different groups or individuals.Table 1 shows the distribution of world income. There are three headings down the left-hand side of the table: income per head, percentage of world population and percentage of world Income. In poor countries, like India, China and the Sudan, the income per head is only one hundred and fifty-five pounds per year. But at the same time, they have fifty point seven per cent of the world's population. These poor countries only have five per cent of the world's income.

In middle-income countries the income per head is eight hundred and forty pounds, that's in countries like Thailand and Brazil. In the major oil countries, like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, it's seven thousand, six hundred and seventy. In industrial countries it's six thousand, two hundred and seventy.

Turning to middle-income countries again, they have twenty-five point one per cent of world population, with fourteen point two per cent of world income. The major oil countries have point four per cent of population, the industrial countries fifteen point six. The oil countries have one point five per cent of world income, the industrial countries sixty-four point eight.

The first economic question is for whom does the world economy produce? As the table shows, it produces essentially for the people living in the rich industrial countries. They get sixty per cent of the world's income, although they only have sixteen per cent of its population. This suggests an answer to the

second question, that is of what is produced. The answer is that most of world production will be directed towards the goods and services that these same rich industrialised countries want.

The third question is how goods arc produced. In poor countries, with little machinery, not very much technical training and so on, workers produce much less than workers in rich countries. And poverty is very difficult to escape. It continues on and on. And this goes some way towards accounting for the differences in national incomes. It accounts for an unequal distribution of income, not just between countries but also between members of the same country, although there individual governments can help through taxation. In other words, governments can act to help distribute income throughout their population.

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

Having mentioned the effect of government tax policy on the income distribution, it's necessary to examine in greater detail the role of the government in society In every society governments provide such services as national defence, police, public education, firefighting services, and the administration of justice. In addition, governments through budget make transfer payments to some members of society.

Transfer payments are payments made to individuals without requiring the provision of any service in return. Examples are social security, retirement pensions, unemployment benefits, and, in some countries, food stamps. Government expenditure, whether on the provision of goods and services (defence, police) or on transfer payments, is chiefly financed by imposing taxes, although some (small) residual component may be financed by government borrowing. Tabl. 2 compares the role of the government in four countries.